On the bright side, I don't think we have to worry about public panic.
On the other hand, here we have dueling surveys.
01:34 PM ET 11/29/99
Y2K Fears May Bring More Glitches
Y2K Fears May Bring More Glitches
By DAVID E. KALISH=
AP Business Writer=
NEW YORK (AP) _ Kosmas Spiridellis, the top technology manager
at the securities firm CIBC World Markets, may be precisely the
sort of well-informed American who gives Y2K planners insomnia.
Spiridellis is the main fixer of millennium bugs for his
company, but he still plans to withdraw a few thousand dollars in
cash, just in case there are glitches that cause bank computers to
misread Jan. 1, 2000 as 1900. ``We all have to be prudent,' he
maintains.
Not so fast, many government and business leaders say. Such
last-minute moves repeated the world over could create bigger
problems than computer bugs themselves.
Forget about Y2K doomsayers and survivalists, who long ago
squirreled away months' worth of freeze-dried food, guns and
ammunition. It's eleventh-hour stockpiling by the rest of us,
acting roughly at once, that's got experts concerned in the current
millennium's final weeks.
``Perceptions could become reality,' said Andy Kyte, an analyst
at the consulting firm Gartner Group, based in Stamford, Conn.
Drug companies are bracing for a surge in orders for medicine.
Some sellers of emergency equipment such as electricity generators
already are sold out. Phone companies are worried that millions of
people will pick up the phone at once to check for a dial tone _
overloading the system. The government fears stockpiling may
squeeze supplies of food and other staples.
``I do not anticipate any shortage of food in this country as a
result of a Y2K technical problem,' said Anne F. Thomson Reed,
chief information officer for the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
``Having said that, there is a lot of concern that the public will
make a decision to stock up a couple of days before.'
To be sure, the risk of actual Y2K disruptions in the United
States and elsewhere has been significantly reduced by rigorous
computer mending these past two years. Many experts now say any
outages will be scattered and less severe than initially feared.
Nonetheless, human behavior is still vulnerable to doomsayers'
warnings and media scare stories, not to mention the recent NBC
movie depicting blackouts, nuclear plant meltdowns and panic in the
streets.
Some 55 percent of Americans plan to withdraw from two to six
weeks of cash in preparation for 2000, while 65 percent say they
may sell shares of stock, according to a September study of 14,000
people from 40 different occupations by the Gartner Group.
In addition, 67 percent plan to store seven to 18 days of food,
the study said.
A recent government survey does show that a campaign by
businesses and government to assuage people's concerns may be
paying off. In contrast to Gartner Group's numbers, the
government's poll shows a decline in the number of people likely to
withdraw extra cash during the Year 2000 transition period, down to
39 percent from 62 percent in March. But that is still a sizable
portion of the U.S. population.
Government and industry groups have been advising consumers to
put aside about three days' worth of extra supplies and cash _ what
you might store up anyway for New Year's.
``We're hoping to get across to our customers that taking out
more money than you would for a holiday weekend is dangerous,'
said Jim Lestelle, a spokesman for Hibernia National Bank, with
branches in Louisiana and eastern Texas.
The Federal Reserve has ordered an additional $50 billion of new
currency put into circulation in the event people make a run on
banks and ATMs late in the year. That means there will be $200
billion stored in government vaults, up from the $150 billion
normally held in reserve.
Drug manufacturers say publicly they're confident they'll be
able to meet any last-minute surges in demand, yet to be sure
they're bolstering production and jamming warehouses with stocks of
medicine.
One of the biggest risks is ``citizens deciding they need to
stockpile to make sure they have what they need. If that happens in
large quantities, (some shortages) are pretty much guaranteed,'
said Joel Ackerman, executive director at RX2000 Solutions
Institute, a health industry information clearinghouse.
Household items that could be in short supply include paper
products, bottled water, canned vegetables, canned meats and
batteries. Some of the concern over food shortages has ebbed of
late, ``but there could be disruptions in certain categories,'
said Carole Throssell, a spokeswoman for the Food Marketing
Institute, a Washington-based trade group.
The impact is already being felt, though in scattered ways.
At Cummins/Onan Power Generating Systems in Boise, Idaho,
there's a four-month wait for a generator large enough to produce
electricity for a medium-sized home. ``We're done selling for
Y2K,' said sales manager Greg Kittridge.
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