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Technology Stocks : Metatools (MTLS) - looking for discussion

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To: Patrice Gigahurtz who wrote (141)	4/17/1997 5:40:00 PM
From: earthling	of 281

I think July and August are going to be big months for this stock. Soap and Painter 5 will both ship in Q2, so the revenues that will be released in mid July will take a big leap upward. I imagine both Soap and Painter 5 will attract the usual gushing reviews and the awards. (Plus the $2 million that Fractal missed shipping in the last quarter will appear as revenues in July.) And after the merger (which finishes by May 31) you'll have the announcement of a new company name. Kai, Zimmerman, and Wilzak will all get out on the road and will be able to tell the story of the new company (none of them can say anything now because of the quiet period). There should also be some announcements by Q3 of actual products coming out of RTG. And at least one of the platform versions of InfiniD 4 will be out by summer. So it will have the appearance of a real turnaround, and I expect that once the momentum shifts, a sense of exuberance will replace the current jitters that seem to be dominating. My 1997 target for MTLS is 16 (equivalent to 12 for FRAC). I think we'll see this by August, following release of Q2 results for the merged companies. Don't forget that by summer there will almost certainly be a new regime in charge of Apple, and the August Macworld could enjoy a certain honeymoon effect from that. Finally, July and August are always big pickup months in the graphics business. Bottom line: don't give up during the May/June doldrums! Look what has happened to Adobe's stock since the results from the last quarter were announced. Much of Adobe's seeming reversal of fortunes simply comes from the pent-up demand for Photoshop 4, but from the response of the myopic investor community you'd think Adobe had become a whole new company. If you can just see a bit farther than the pack and divorce yourself from the mood-of-the-month club, you can do just fine.

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