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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (11497)	11/30/1999 6:37:00 PM
From: Tom Ardnij	Read Replies (3) of 54805

Mike, Some thoughts on valuing gorillas. I can't help but notice that young simians and indeed newly crowned royalty outperform the silverbacks. I think that there exists a clear reason that is outlined in the field manual. It deals with threats to the CAP of some of the silverbacks starting to show up on the horizon. Not the type of threats that make for a sudden drop, but rather the gradual type that proceeds slowly. Disruptive Technologies abound to change the importance of desktop computers. Certainly, handheld wireless devices throughout the home and office lessen the focus on the microcomputer. The desktop operating system and indeed many applications overshoot the day to day needs of most people. The internet combined with large application servers stand to disrupt further the importance of sophisticated desktop computers. It appears that new gorillas deserve a higher valuation because they are typically found in those arenas that enable the use of data anywhere. Thus the importance of wireless, optics, storage, and in general investments in bandwidth. George Gilder of course calls this the Telecosm. A couple of weeks ago I attended the Disruptive Technology Conference with Gilder and Clayton Christenson, author of the Innovator's Dilemma. Paul Jacobson, President of Qualcomm's Consumer Products Division addressed the group, in a session with the Director of Intel's communications development. I left the two day conference concerned that a series of disruptive technologies are coming into place that will gradually tear at the CAP, specifically of Intel and Microsoft. Nothing sudden, but certainly paradigm shifting as to where and how we access communications and technology. I think this shift is a large part of the outsized valuations of Qualcomm, JDS Uniphase and smaller companies that chip off a part of the microcomputer value chain. Sorry about the length of this post. Best Regards, Tom

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