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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (44882)	11/30/1999 10:18:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Bill; It's turned into more than profit taking late today.. My DVI may look complicated or like a lot of work but it's so damm simple and easy my guess is most people don't even look at it. The DVI for the NDX only has the 14 most popular traded NDX stocks in it. The DVI for the S&P has 24. They all fit on one page and just looking at them during the day tells exactly what the most popular stocks are doing. Believe me it's often nothing like the market shows , and the market digest is a joke. Even it's summery of the amount of up/down volume can tell huge lies, as the way they get up/down volume is IF the stock is up then ALL it's volume is counted as UP volume.. Well crap early today I saw the market digest showing positive UP volume even the talking heads on CNBC were hooting it up But the DVI showed the lie The up volume early on belonged MSFT and DELL..BUT they were only up just a tad, hell WCOM CSCO ORCL GE were falling like a rock but just didn't have the volume so up volume looked good, but it was on crap..when DELL broke south all that volume went to down volume..and finally some CNBC clown said O folks we are now losing a little ground. Hell the market was down from the open and the indexes just didn't show it till later. --------------- I'll start with yesterday..it's hard for the DVI to work before 10 AM , I use the futures till then. 11-29 NDX DVI 10 am NDX -.21 / DVI -.68 A/D 9/5 : Noon NDX -.19/DVI -.27 A/D 8/6 Close NDX -1.71/DVI -1.80 A/D had got to 3/10 , with one unchanged Well That looked like profit taking and I posted it with the reference it was getting worse and could turn into more than profit taking. ------------------------ Today 11-30 10 AM NDX -.71% DVI-.76% A/D 4/10 , noon NDX -.63 DVI -.96 A/D 6/8 so it still looked like profit taking..by 1:30 the A/D dropped fast to 3/11 NDX -1.09 DVI-1.23 the drop was on..BY 2:30 the A/D was 1/13 MSFT was the only DVI up.. By the close it was still 1/13 and the NDX was down -3.15 DVI-3.63 ------------------------ OK we might get a knee jerk up with the news on the changes in the S&P and Yahoo being brought in but I think the market has shown her colar and after the knee jerk unless the dollar pushes above 102 we are going to correct. ---------------------------- The S&P DVI was even more ugly..but in an odd way Futures were down so she started off -.65 -.99 with 8 advancers to 16 down..by noon it looked like she wanted to go up the S&P was +.09 however the DVI was still down -.40 and the A/D was worse 10/14 so I knew there was no correction to the up side..by the close S&P was -1.34 DVI-2.96 A/D 5/21.. THat only 1 up for 4 down in the most popular of the S&P. ----------------------------- I looked at the A/D of the NIFTY FIFTY too..and don't let anyone tell you we are in a new age where the NIFTY FIFTY don't count. AT the close it was 17/33.. So maybe a knee jerk up, but the dye is cast..the leaders have now shown they want profits. The only thing that can stop it now is if the Dollar rally's even more, and interest rates drop back. They are the main gate keepers. Jim --------------------------------- I sold some of my POTSX today, held a 3rd and if we get that knee jerk up tomorrow I'll buy it back..and take on some puts, unless the DVI gets a lot better fast.

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