RE <<<It is an excellent time to be acquiring both INTC and AMD on weakness like today. Just my very humble opinion.>>
Cory, my reason for saying intc was going south a few weeks back is based on both technical and fundamental reasons. And I am posting this not to flame intc but let you know my reasons for saying what I said. In addition I need to point out that my investment horizon is about a year or less except for those stocks I put into my 401k.
First the technical reasons: when intc topped out at 90+ the volume spike was much less than some of those that occurred as it rose from 50 to 90. Usually a healthy stock will top out on huge volume and then usually the next day will reaffirm that new top. Intc did neither. A stock when its reaching a new high should be attracting a lot of new buyers.....presumably because the stock is on a roll. I did not see that happen with intc.
Then typically the stock will do a pull back for a few days, maybe up to a few weeks but then should climb back up and take out that new high. Intc failed to do that but instead starting gapping down and when it did gap, the volume spikes were huge...indicating that people were leaving in big numbers.
Since then the descent has slowed but if you look at a monthly chart, you can see that intc is trending down. The stock is forming a serpentine shaped pattern and as it winds up and down the chart, it does it on lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downward bias.....which takes us to the fundamental side.
Intc is a cyclical stock and and at this time of the year should be where it is at is most robust. Yet the downward bias is happening now. Why? Some would say there's no reason; its just is. However, its my opinion and let me say that again, its my opinion that the downward bias results from intc's misfires in terms of chips, chipsets, missed earnings, slowing revenue growth etc. Any of these things by themselves are nothing significant but taken over a six month period, one after the other, I think investors have become concerned and are moving out of the stock to some degree. How serious is this? I don't really know. I am surprised at the seeming lack of reaction by intc's board...frankly if I were a board member I would be p*ssed at some of these misfirings. I think long term intc will regain its equilibrium.
At the same time investors are a fickled lot....look at dell, its growing much faster than intc and its biggest crimes are that its growing less than what it used to grow (< than 50% as opposed to > than 50%) and its in a very competitive industry, and so its penalized: its been stuck in a trading range for a better part of the year. This is after the stock used to double almost every 6 months for several years in a row.
For the long term(more than a year) intc is a solid albeit conservative tech investment and one should do better than the inflation rate and the bank interest rate. However to me it does not look likely to grow as fast in the next ten years as it did in the past ten.
Now, like, I said I would appreciate no flaming over my analysis. My analysis is what I would do if I thought I might want to take a position in a stock and is a part of my DD. You may disagree completely and that's fine.
I hoped I haven't bored you.
ted
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