Lee,
I think NAIRU is significantly below that rate now....there are very few areas of employment that I think could be called "tight" in the traditional sense. Large numbers are changing jobs frequently. Perhaps the tightest market I've seen is the "macjob" arena, where low level positions are now being filled by offering slightly better wages, but with upfront payments of cash - bonuses, if you will. These one time payments aren't inflationary, in the traditional sense, since they are one time payments. They aren't paid out alot, because to collect you must stay on the job for a specified period of time.
On the flip side...areas that ARE tight (programmers, sales) are paying more in options than wages. I know. I just changed jobs for the same salary, but a better options package. This, too, is non inflationary in the traditional sense.
These changes have created a situation where you could argue that NAIRU is actually closer to 4 - 4.5%. Making the US a somewhat "stable" economy at the moment...price-wise. |
