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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Don Hurst who wrote (29188)12/1/1999 4:35:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
Hello!

<<BTW for Toy; Novell's "core competency" is Netware and all the rest, NDS,ICS, DM,ZEN etc is just recognition that Neware will continue, for the time being, to be the foundation of the company's revenues but not the basis for the future growth. I just happen to believe that ICS could rival NDS for revenue contribution to Novl. At least I don't see MSFT pitching it's caching products.....YET >>

Last year at BrainShare, Dr. Schmidt stated that revenue growth would not come from NetWare but rather from NDS and NDS-related products. He stated that the next 1-2 years would see Novell shift from a server-centric world to a directory-centric world. Once this was accomplished, Novell would be in a great position as a market leader.

I don't think that NetWare will even be an issue with regards to NDS revenue streams once we see NDS for NT, NDS for Solaris and NDS for Linux begin to add to the bottom line. One day in the near future, we will start to see a break down of NDS sales by OS. Sure NetWare may lead that statistic for the time being but will it always?

Does it matter?

If NDS and NDS-related products can grow Novell's revenue streams faster and better than NetWare ever could, which one would you want?

As for core competency, the Directory market (IMHO) was perhaps not created by Novell but established by Novell. It's their's to lose. I only hope they don't lose it because of MARKETING HYPE alone! That would be a bad thing.

Peter J Strifas
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