Richard:
Clearly there are some intangibles and I do not believe anyone is 100% certain. Having said that, I believe the disruptions while inconvenient will have a minor impact on the US economy, Europe, and Japan. Beyond that predictions are difficult. I do know that for much of the third world countries there are a variety of contingencies in effect including, walling off factories and then turning back the clocks of the systems that regulate machinery, installation of total new systems, with historical data reentered slowly over time. What was explained to me, most of the undeveloped countries have systems that are relatively small and unsophisticated with production in each country limited to a few raw materials or manufactured goods being assembled in less sophisticated factories that were originally designed to be put up quickly and shut down when they are no longer productive or a more productive climate is found.
A systemic failure of the world's monetary and banking infrastructure is remote with more risk involving the markets themselves.
Whatever happens we will have a pretty good indication by the end of new years weekend. If all of the worlds major markets, banks, airlines, communications, and governments are operating and open for business on Monday January 3, 1999, the world as we know it will continue.
Ken |
