Ken:
I don't expect to see systemic Y2K problems until February or March. Cascading breakdowns, like a snowball rolling downhill and getting bigger as it goes, will be the biggest problem, whether they occur in the international banking system, the national power grid, one company receiving corrupted data from another, etc., etc. Individual problems that multiply as they are passed through the system will be the biggest problems and they won't begin to show up for a few weeks after 1/1/2000. There will be a few isolated problems on 1/3/2000, but for the most part, that day (and week) will be a non-event. Don't be lulled into complacency by the first week in January.
IMO, the real problems won't show up until spring, 2000 or even next summer. Summer power usage is far greater than in the winter.
Thousands of individual small failures will result in a very huge systemic problem as we get a few months into 2000.
I expect oil imports to drop as we get into 2000 due to Y2K problems in the Middle East, Mexico, and Venezuela but we won't know that on January 3rd. Ditto, any other item we import from a country that is not Y2K compliant. Italy is a basket case; their Y2K czar has said publicly he expects the economy to collapse. We are very dependent on imports. There is no way our economy can be an island of prosperity or stability while the rest of the world's economies fall apart. Japan is in bad shape. PC makers have been looking for alternate suppliers for months. Y2K will have a huge impact on our economy (and stock market) but it won't be evident on January 3rd. Pray for the best, prepare for the worst.
Terry |
