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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: William JH who wrote (55811)12/1/1999 6:58:00 PM
From: Roebear  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
WilliamJH,
If they can't keep gas storage up in the shoulder season in a record warm November, what will they do when it gets cold?
PA had a very warm November, as did the other MidAtlantic states. While a lot of oil is burned in rural areas a lot of NG is used in the cities. Harrisburg NWS reported the third warmest November on record supplanting the November 1994 record and only exceeded by November 1931 & 1975.
My prediction a week or so ago for colder weather held true but not enough to impact the heating degrees. We are currently about 3.5% above last year and almost 17% above normal. This is reduced from 6% above last winter a week ago, due to the recent cold snap. The weather outlook is that we will lose some ground Friday through Monday having under normal HDD. We will lose about 26 HDD through 12-8 however this is nothing compared to last year when oil and gas retailers watched their hopes for a White Chri$tma$ plummet as we lost 132 heating degree days through this period. 12-7-98 only had one heating degree, equal to an early fall day.
A cooling trend is to start Monday with near normal cold temperatures on Tuesday 12-7. We could pick up to 8-11% in heating degrees over last year by the 9th, leaving us 4-7% colder than last year at that date (as we are now almost 4% over last years).
The NAO is still positive, it has moderated from strongly positive a few days ago. If the Jet Stream and the NAO and some other things behave, there is still hope for this winter.

More than you wanted to know, eh William?

VBG

Roebear
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