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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Les H who wrote (22362)	12/1/1999 9:21:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 42787

Well lack of time is killing me as I planned on building a new indicator based on a concept I was blending in my mind from my stuff and some of the "gurus". Now I need it to break a few ties and I don't have it built nor back tested to see if it will really work. Arghh! I just finished my downloads and a quick run through of the main charts I track and it is a mixed picture. My automated scans show a huge decrease in both over bought and over sold so I guess the bounce in the smaller issues and the drop yesterday in the darlings has pretty much bled off some of the extremism that was in the market last week. As for the charts, my daily charts are full of short term buy signals so there should be a few good scalps left long. HOWEVER, my weekly charts as they stand right now with the week only half over look like this is it. The short term sell signals I had from last week are bearing fruit already which is unusual since my weekly signals are not usually this timely. Even if the rest of this week is up, we would form hanging man formations which are bearish. Of course flat to down from here would be bearish engulfing or at least black candles. Based on these reads, I would have to think we could get some short term strength but the next couple weeks should be downward biased. This is out of sync with many of the "experts" I have read and also doesn't jive with my read of the TYX. I fully expect the bond to rally a bit from here and cause interest rates to head to at least the 6.25 and more likely 6.0 area. It isn't the season for pre-announcements yet so not sure what would tank the stocks and cause a flight to quality in the bond. Just looking at the daily charts I was very bullish but when I went to check out my picks on the weekly charts, they scared me a bit. I usually don't check my weeklies in mid week like this so maybe I should just discount them. Not sure what I will do yet. If I dont get it straightened out by tomorrow AM, I will just buy stock instead of calls to play it safe as I expect another rally after the FOMC no matter what. You know, tis the season to disregard fundamentals and buy. AG will provide the cash to ensure a merry X-mas and prevent a Y2K plunge. <ng> I still expect a rotation to the DOW from the NASDAQ though the SOX chart has me perplexed. I see the SOX as bullish forming a flag but Don thinks it is headed down. I hate most semi companies so it isn't like I will be trading it but I do feel it will push the market one way or the other so I would like to figure it out. No matter what, I figure if ADM drops to 11, it is a steal. The OSX is looking interesting again and I still am watching QWST, CPWR and BGEN trying to figure out the best time to enter into those. You will be able to tell when I buy as that will be when the other shoe drops. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

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