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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 668.73

+1.5%

Nov 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (34483)	12/1/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

First I want to apologize to those trying to use my site the last few days. I have been having bizarre ISP problems lately. I couldn't get quote data two days ago, then yesterday it took 6 hours to get my charts to update on the site then I was locked out before I could add my comments and picks. On topic though, this is an excerpt of a post I made to Les on another thread that basically says the usual... I am befuddled. ...I just finished my downloads and a quick run through of the main charts I track and it is a mixed picture. My automated scans show a huge decrease in both over bought and over sold so I guess the bounce in the smaller issues and the drop yesterday in the darlings has pretty much bled off some of the extremism that was in the market last week. As for the charts, my daily charts are full of short term buy signals so there should be a few good scalps left long. HOWEVER, my weekly charts as they stand right now with the week only half over look like this is it. The short term sell signals I had from last week are bearing fruit already which is unusual since my weekly signals are not usually this timely. Even if the rest of this week is up, we would form hanging man formations which are bearish. Of course flat to down from here would be bearish engulfing or at least black candles with lower lows. Based on these reads, I would have to think we could get some short term strength but the next couple weeks should be downward biased. This is out of sync with many of the "experts" I have read and also doesn't jive with my read of the TYX. I fully expect the bond to rally a bit from here and cause interest rates to head to at least the 6.25 and more likely 6.0 area since this morning's 6.33 is "close enough" to my short term projected top of 6.35. It isn't the season for pre-announcements yet so not sure what would tank the stocks and cause a flight to quality in the bond. Just looking at the daily charts I was very bullish but when I went to check out my picks on the weekly charts, they scared me a bit. I usually don't check my weeklies in mid week like this so maybe I should just discount them. Not sure what I will do yet. If I don't get it straightened out by tomorrow AM, I will just buy stock instead of calls to play it safe as I expect another rally after the FOMC no matter what. You know, tis the season to disregard fundamentals and buy. AG will provide the cash to ensure a merry X-mas and prevent a Y2K plunge. <ng> I still expect a rotation to the DOW from the NASDAQ though the SOX chart has me perplexed. I see the SOX as bullish forming a flag but X thinks it is headed down. I hate most semi companies so it isn't like I will be trading it but I do feel it will push the market one way or the other so I would like to figure it out. No matter what, I figure if ADM drops to 11, it is a steal... You will be able to tell when I buy as that will be when the other shoe drops. <ggg>...... AS I read this string and saw Bens post and was looking through my charts tonight I was also noticing that the JPN and that stockmaster chart of the SPX looks a lot like the 3 peaks and a domed house. Things that make you go Hmmmm. Good Luck, Lee

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