I agree with you. My assertion was a big hypothetical. But I will say that I think Lucent will only be growing at a 10-12% clip 5 years from now, whereas Cisco will be growing at a 20-25% clip.
Here's my scenario. If Lucent is at $30 billion now, and they grow at 25%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% over the next 5 years, they will be at $65.5 billion in revs. If Cisco is at $12 now, and they grow at 50%, 45%, 40%, 35%, and 30% over the next 5 years, they will be at $64.1 billion in revs. If the above happens, Cisco's revenues will surpass Lucent's in the 6th year.
Don't you think that scenario is entirely possible, if not very likely? Give me a scenario that you think is probable. I'm curious as to how well you think Lucent will do. Maybe I am underestimating Lucent's potential a bit, but I am damned sure I am not underestimating Cisco's. |
