Alex,
I saw in another review that BZ2 is scheduled for release "mid-December." Maybe it will happen after all. I'm beginning to think the SoF delay was a good thing. With UT, and Q3, I wouldn't want it to get lost in the shuffle.
Here's an interesting article from Bloomberg which could also be titled "why I own game stocks." It is a little over the top...but some of the ideas are sound, IMO.
-Scot
Let Lara Croft Be Your Guide to the New Economy: Matthew Lynn (Matthew Lynn is a columnist for Bloomberg News. His judgments don?t necessarily reflect those of Bloomberg News.)
London, Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- You might think that Lara Croft, the heroine of the Tomb Raider series of computer games, had very little to tell us about the world except that guys have a weakness for attractive women carrying machine guns, and that the monkeys will always get you when you least expect it.
In truth, however, Lara is the first mega-star of the digital economy, and her rise to global prominence gives us a clue to how that economy will develop. In the game, Lara only guns down the various baddies in the game; in the real world, it's media and entertainment giants such as EMI Plc, News Corp. or Walt Disney Co. that could get splattered.
That's because computer games aren't just the preserve of pimply 14-year-old boys anymore. It?s a $10 billion business worldwide, one that will grow to $15 billion within three years, according to Merrill Lynch estimates. That will make games bigger than films, bigger than pop music and a lot bigger than books in short, the world's most lucrative entertainment medium.
And the upcoming release of Tomb Raider 4: The Last Revelation is being marketed with the kind of hoopla traditionally associated with a new film or pop record.
The British company that makes the game, Eidos Plc, is pushing the game hard into the market. In the U.S., its campaign includes massive billboard and poster advertising, as well as gimmicks to exploit Lara's popularity.
American fans will be able to buy a Lara chocolate bar, a Lara action doll, a Lara comic book, and get a free demo disc of the game if they eat at Pizza Hut.
Dizzy Ride
In Britain the papers are full of Lara stories, even on such subjects how some early episodes of the new adventure feature a 16-year-old Lara who is a lot more slender than the shapely character her fans are used to. The Lara Croft film, made by Paramount, will only increase her fame.
Such hype will be enjoyed most by Eidos's shareholders, who in the last 12 months have been on a ride more dizzying than anything the game?s designers could have come up with.
In August 1997 you could still buy Eidos shares for less than five pounds ($8). Now they will cost you more than fifty pounds, making it one of the best-performing European shares of the past year. Eidos now has a total value of just over 1 billion pounds a lot of money to be resting even on Lara?s muscular shoulders.
It evolved gradually to where it is now, said Mike McGarvey, the chief operating officer of Eidos. ?Lara Croft was the first computer character that really stepped out of the gamesmarket.
That is partly a matter a matter of stretching the brand. Lara already advertises products such as Lucozade, the sports drink made by Britain's SmithKline Beecham Plc, and has deals upcoming with companies such as Nike Inc. Merrill Lynch analyst Tim Steer estimates her fee income already comes to about 1 million pounds a year and that is likely to keep growing. That money drops straight down to the Eidos bottom line.
No Agent
"You know the greatest thing about Lara," McGarvey said. "She doesn't have an agent. We own her forever. We can dowhatever we want with her."
But product endorsements are also about establishing Lara as an icon, and about blurring the distinctions between the virtual and the real world. In commercial terms Lara is probably by now a more valuable commodity than all but the very top film, pop and sports stars more valuable than Cameron Diaz, say, but not yet quite in the Julia Roberts league. Yet she remains a confection of silicon and code. The only thing real about Lara is the profits she reaps for her creators.
There have always been fictional stars, of course. There is nothing real about Mickey Mouse, or James Bond, or Sherlock Holmes, but all of them have been turned into powerful commercial franchises. Lara, however, is the first purely electronic star, she can move between mediums, and doesn't depend on an actor or author to bring her to life.
Lara Croft's success tells us that the digital economy has rapidly become very corporate but that it is still a distant world to the traditional media giants.
?It is becoming a lot harder for the guy in the garage with his PC to come up with something,? McGarvey said. ?This is starting to become a very expensive business.?
Nerds in Garages
Nerds in their garages creating games on home computers are a thing of the past?that was the games business of a decade ago. But it's also true that the giants of the media industry, despite their best efforts, have so far made little impression on the games markets.
The big rivals to Eidos are companies such as America?s Electronic Arts Inc., a company with a market capitalization of about $6.6 billion.
Still, that's tiny compared with Disney, with a market cap of about $57 billion. The big media companies have not yet been able to crack the market, and it may now be too late?characters such as Lara Croft have established the position, and you can't lure her away with an offer of a huge paycheck for her next game. All they can do is buy the Eidoses and Electronic Arts of the world.
The big traditional media and entertainment companies will be forced to become players in the largest entertainment medium of all?games?or else face questions about their long-term viability. The two giant media of the new century will both be digital; the Internet for serious information, games for entertainment.
Both are arenas that are dominated by freshly minted companies?the Internet by businesses such as Yahoo! Inc. or Amazon.com Inc. and the games industry by the likes of Eidos and EA. Their lead may be so well established, it will be tough for their old media rivals to catch up.
In the new economy, a media business either has to be an Internet or a games companies, or, as Lara might put it if she ever turned her elegant horn-rimmed spectacles to such matters, it is already toast. |
