Earlie, Amazon is the tip of the iceberg. Most of the e-tailers will find themselves in the same untenable situation. What I find truly astounding is the froth surrounding the tech stocks. I just completed a thorough-going analysis of Cisco, and concluded that the stock is worth (by my valuation criteria) around $35 tops (and that's being generous).
Yet I hear on the tube this morning that an analyst is talking about "new valuation metrics". My translation: there is no way to justify the stock price on fundamentals (even assuming a 30% p.a. growth rate in perpetuity), so these guys are scratching around for something to rationalize these prices.
Don't get me wrong -- CSCO is a great company, but at $93 a share -- I don't think so. When I delved into the company's 10-K I discovered that it has around $9BB in bonds. That means that a significant portion of its earnings comes from interest -- not from operations.
If you're interested, check here:
freeedgar.com
Anyway, I see this huge bubble forming, and I am sorely tempted to short the stock. The problem is that the mania could continue for months, if not years, and I don't know if my pockets are deep enough to withstand the possible pain. I am certain, however, that shareholders are in for a terrible downdraft.
TTFN,
CTC |
