John, 350K by y/e 2000 would be pretty disappointing, imo. Bernard said 1M, Irwin Jacobs, I believe, said 600K. Of course, the growth RATE will be more important than any absolute number.
Taking BLS' number as best case, I would consider 50% of that by 12/2000 to warrant a passing grade, at least if the 1M sub count is met within six months of that.
My personal metric for success has been for some time: 660K subs by year end with a 100K per month net add rate.
As for Mexico, I'm inclined to believe the 10K is NOT a y/e target; the Spanish language press did not report it as such and Reuters is as capable of making a mistake as anybody else. Would be nice if the company clarified that number.
If Brazil, as they have said for some time, can make 50K by y/e 2000, I'd think Mexico should have 30K, anyway, by year end.
Taking into account national demographics and service launch date it ought to be possible to project for other markets, scaling off of the 50K subs for Brazil. I tried to do that below; comments will be appreciated:
Country, y/e 2000 subs
Canada, 50
US, 50
Mexico, 30
Brazil, 50
Argentina, 30
S. Africa, 30
Russia, 50
China, 80
Australia, 40
Europe ex Russia, 60
Central America, 30
South America ex Brazil & Argentina, 60
Mid East, 40
Asia ex China, 40
Africa ex S. Africa, 20 |
