If the tech sector grows at 20% for 20 years, why that turns out to be a gain of 38x. Say, that would put the Naz at 132,000. Yee-haw! Let's see, 5% elsewhere, that would bring the DOW to just 2.65x or say 29,000. But that's a silly extrapolation on my part. After twenty years of 20% growth, I'm sure the premium on growth tech stocks will at least double, so I'll put that index at 264,000. Wow! That will coincide nicely with my retirement!
I think Warren Buffet mentioned in that recent piece that floated by here how in the late 70s and early 80s, people thought that the lousy returns on the stock market would continue forever. Surprise, now it's the opposite (as he also pointed out).
I suspect that the 2020 foresight folks will be getting 20-20 hindsight soon enough. <g> |
