Not everyone's x-mas list <g>.
Let me say that I feel okay reprinting this because 1) it helps to understand why certain logical-appearing arguments may not turn out as expected 2) JS has admitted to already making a lot of money in the past so this isn't a 'kick em when they're way down' scenario and 3)I have all the respect in the world for doctors and in his right to have any opinion... that said, why in the world would I go to my doctor to get market timing advice?? Again, if the market has shown us anything it is that 'it' will not be easily understood by fast ratios (p/e, e/p u decide) or generalized benchmarking based on rates... at least not in the short run! There's the rub. New paradigm?? Naw, just longer cycle... if a cycle gets long enough though one starts to wonder if it may not just have been the way of the world all along, but obfuscated by nasty short term 'trends' like say the last 60 years <g>.
From: Jacob Snyder Saturday, October 16, 1999
[editor's note: on Oct. 16th AMAT was at 79, um 36% ago]
still bullish?
still don't see any inflation?
still waiting for the Fed to lower interest rates?
wondering why 30 Year Treasuries are at a 2-year high?
still singing, "future's so bright, gotta wear shades"?
going for 3 out of 3? (I mean on your track record of being pound-the-table bullish at the market or sector tops)
The end is nigh.
******
And this classic days later:
what risk do you think there is in AMAT today?
...
3. Market risk. Lots. This is what the thread should be discussing, because here is where the risk is in the stock, today.
I'll make a very specific prediction:
As long as:
1. the yield on 10 year Treasuries is over 6%
2. the Fed has a tightening bias
3. we keep getting warning signs of impending inflation
then the S&P 500 will not set new highs. We could, possibly, have one more blow-off rally in high techs, but I don't think the Nasdaq 100 can go more than 5% above the highs set October 11, or hold the gains, as long as the 3 conditions above exist.
As long as those conditions exist, I think it is prudent to hedge downside market risk. If they change, then I'll change my opinion, and sell my puts.
{editor's 2nd note: S&P and Naz. have recently hit all time highs... but y'all knew that. 10-year treasury is over 6%. Fed did much more than keep bias they actually raised rates. "High" set Oct. 11th was 2,915 now at 3,453 you'd have missed an 18.5% bump.}
Happy Holidays.
RO |
