Sonny:
I read the article regarding the Justice Department's retention of a firm to evaluate possible remedies in the MSFT antitrust litigation. The move comes as no surprise since I have felt that the real issue in the case is the remedies issue.
The fact that the market may be changing rapidly should not influence Judge Jackson in his decision regarding MSFT's violation of antitrust laws. The Court should not evaluate alleged changes in circumstances after the fact, that is, after the trial has concluded. The Court should evaluate the facts and the circumstances as they were presented to the Court. However, a change in circumstances may affect the severity of the remedies to be imposed by the Court.
If the settlement process before Judge Posner breaks down, Judge Jackson will render his conclusions of law, which most assuredly will be against MSFT. The remedies imposed by Judge Jackson may be quite severe. This will start another wave of sentiment against MSFT which will negatively impact the stock.
I also believe that if Judge Jackson is required to issue his conclusions of Law, this will fuel all of those class actions and third party suits which have been springing up around the country. Those suits will base their claims, in part, upon Judge Jackson's conclusions of law. MSFT will have plenty of headaches defending against all of that litigation, and it will impede the company's ability to function.
I believe MSFT will eventually settle. I also think MSFT will have to pay a heavy price, but one which may not include a breakup.
Regardless of whether there is a settlement or Judge Jackson is forced to render his conclusions of law, I do not believe MSFT will ever be the company it once was.
Therefore, I would be cautious about investing in MSFT at this point. The future is still too uncertain. The recent move in the stock price is not based upon anything concrete and the slightest indication that things are not going well in the settlement process, or that Judge Jackson is on the verge of rendering his conclusions of law, will likely send the stock price down. A harsh ruling by Judge Jackson likely will further hurt the stock.
I think, at this point, and at this time of the year, there are better places than MSFT to invest your money. If this were, say, April, May, June, when technology issues are not flying, I might feel differently.
Incidentally, I, too, am watching the stock for a reentry point. Now is not the time for me.
JMHO.
My best to you.
Tecinvestor |
