The shifting reference frame of the AMD Naysayers:
Last summer, the focus of this "AMD negative cabal" was the MIA Athlon, followed by the mobo supply problems and now after 5 months of production for the Athlon, it's focus is current CPU losses...
Wholly amazing such selective negative tarbrushing. No mention of the extraordinary increase in Athlon shipments from 200,000 to 1 million (projected) in 3 months. No mention of the ease (and relatively modest incremental production cost when compared to competitors)in moving from 500 MHz to 750 MHz in 5 months, an oversight of particular significance, given the too obvious difficulties encountered by AMD's competitors in keeping pace on the MHz front and no mention of the Y2000 possibility of 10 million Athlons @ $250 ASP resulting in $2.5 billion revenues, which equals total 1999 revenues...and I might add that these $2.5 billion in revenues should offset any costs of production with ample room for profitability in AMD's MPU division.
Add whatever revenues you project for non-Athlons and flash memory, and it's difficult to come in under $5 billion in Y2000 revenues, a 100% year over year increase and, room to demonstrate significant profitability...
The focus of these AMD naysayers on the "here and now" profitability of AMD's MPU division seems paradoxical, when viewed within the context of their forward focus on the "some-time-in-the-future" features of the proposed competitor for the "here and now" Athlon. I wonder, what if any present value, they would place on the Athlon division of AMD.
No doubt, the present value of the Athlon division is a wildcard at the moment, but from this perspective, it would be difficult to overstate the Athlon's present value based upon discounted potential future cash flow.
Hey Scumbria...Just how long will it be before Harvard business school invites Mr. Sanders to speak on the topic of "The Fundamentals of Swift and Efficient American Business Turnarounds (a glimpse of successful 21st century business strategies)" at their school of business? |
