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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

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To: TigerPaw who wrote (2538)12/3/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: quidditch  Read Replies (5) of 24042
 
I would think the first time to rethink will be when the domestic fiber lines (QWST LVLT etc) seem to be fully built out. It is possible that growth would slow at that time. The thing to look at then, is whether JDSU is supplying the rest of the world.

By the time "domestic fiber lines (QWST LVLT etc) [are] fully built out" we had better be seeing metro deployment. QWST and LVLT and others are for the most part, at this time, constructing trunk and backbone infra. Although other applications such as CATV expand the markets, it is in the metro deployment from the trunks that future hyperbolic growth will be assured and really ramp, assuming metro deployment comes at all. It will be time to reevaluate JDSU (within the next 18 months or so, = or - six months either way) if and when metro deployment of fiberoptic bandwidth either takes off or stalls because i) it's too expensive for CLECs and their market, ii) local market is ambivalent about need for fiber (near to) the curb or iii) wireless last mile solutions appear to be displacing need for metro deployment in a material way. JMO

Steve
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