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Technology Stocks : Frank Coluccio Technology Forum - ASAP
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To: JayPC who wrote (607)12/3/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe  Read Replies (3) of 1782
 
If one buys the cable story, then one has to assume that the # of subs will exceed 10M at least. Don't you think the market has already priced this into the valuation? I mean, on a sub basis, the market is giving ATHM a far more aggressive forward valuation than AOL ... rightly so considering their relative maturities. ATHM can double and redouble easily ... AOL is approaching linearity. No one really knows what an ATHM subscriber is worth yet, of course, because neither the service nor the sub base has stabilized enough to assess it, yes?

I think the real comparison is that AOL has a massive lead in content ... and ATHM struggles and flails and contradicts itself in that arena. AOL has a strong lead and a powerful brand ... and ATHM is playing a weak game of catchup. The potential greater value of a broadband subscriber is still ... potential ... and in the absence of contentful action by ATHM will remain so ... substantial evidence is still lacking.

Thus I see the web-desktop as a content quantum leap ... teleporting into a new dimension ... bypassing AOL by revising the rules of play.

AOL has sort of introduced glimmers of desktop features into AOL 5.0 ... and certainly they'll head in that direction ... it matters not whether proactively by vision or reactively by tracking evolving customer expectations.

What I'm looking to understand, from the technology POV, is ... does ATHM's infrastructure constitute a compelling performance advantage in this application area?

Which I suppose I can figure out by using Reginald's and other beta sites via both dial-up and DSL lines ... and perhaps doing some math after a tracert.
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