SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10236)12/3/1999 3:54:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
Justa re<<<<Okay posters and lurkers, time to register your thoughts on how this may or may not be different from July, 1999.>>>>

Awhile back I conjectured on how we might see a 1976 scenario though at the time sentiment was muted. I don't know if it was because I heard Galvin yet or not but I was thinking that with all the y2k predictions we might actually end up with a buy the rumor, sell the fact situation. That is as we approach the end of the year and it appears y2k fears are going to dissipate we could have this pre-millenium melt up which is buying the rumor of no big deal. It would then follow that when we reach Jan 1, 2000 we will manifest "the fact" that no big deal is happening. This could be the start of a big correction or bear. This would also then fit very nicely of matching the 1976 pattern of a final high on the last day of 1976 and the bear starting the next day. If we are able to rally through December this could put bullish sentiment very stretched by the end of December. It would also of course put us at extremely high valuations. Bob has also made a point that he would watch for the Nasdaq and high tech more precisely for signs of losing momentum as a loss of leadership here could have negative implications for the whole market. I would find it especially alarming if the high techs started to tread water or worse and we actually got a return of the cyclicals as we approach the end of the year. I'm not sure if Bob's model would trigger a sell signal or not as there would be no sign of recession but we will have to see.

Marc
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News