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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS)
CTXS 103.900.0%Nov 2 5:00 PM EST

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To: David Perfette who wrote (7311)12/3/1999 4:47:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 9068
 
David,

Thoughts on the subject of analysts and financial journalists.

I think that there are two ways to use analysts. The first is to glean their views about the intermediate-term prospects for the industry, and their short-term views about earnings. The second is to accept their picks. I think it is a grave mistake to accept their stock valuations and target prices. A lot of them have abandoned valuations based on economics, and have resorted to using such dubious metrics as sales multiples. Others, like Jubak, employ circular reasoning and assume their conclusions.

I think that viewing analysts' industry and company outlooks, coupled with a lot of your own digging in the 10-Ks and 10-Qs is the optimal way to analyze a potential investment.

There are many companies, and I believe that Citrix is one, that are really concept companies. There is no objective way to determine how big Citrix's market may end up being. On the other hand, the company could fail because of poor customer acceptance or emerging competition.

TTFN,
CTC
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