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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (55993)	12/3/1999 10:04:00 PM
From: double-plus-good	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Slider, I won't dispute the rationale behind your picks, but PV-10 and NAV are also strongly considered in market determined multiples and share prices. Why else would APC trade at what appears to be an overvalued range based on cfps? Regarding your decision to stick with the large caps, I felt the same way about 4 weeks ago, as we entered the range of the ridiculous with valuations. But what you haven't factored in is the degree to which investors are cashing out tax losses in the small caps. Really in devil may care fashion these stocks are being thrown off the cliff: folks who are ringing the register with yahoo and jdsu or whatever need to take their losses wherever they can find them. Savvy traders are likely riding shorts down on these small and mid-caps making a powerful january effect in these stocks very likely IMO. I think the percentage return on the small caps is likely to beat the big caps, especially if one waits for the big block tax loss sales that we saw in MEXP and pgei this week. Wait for the shares to come to you. There are still alot of folks who are going to take the write-off that these shares offer, especially as there are few crazy enough to think they can hold their gains on the insane tech stocks into the next year. On every other score we are in agreement; the recent activity in the market has presented an unbelievable contradiction. Boom 200 is starting to look like real dynamite. ++good p.s. just noted your lengthy discussion of valuation metrics: obviously there are a great many means to measure these stocks, but the bottom line is they are being given away. perhaps all the more so for the small-caps as they get thrown off the cliff. opportunistic limit orders on the small caps very well may pay off more handsomely -- and that is my basic contention.

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