Hi John,
I see the industry, in last few years, as struggling to find a way in which to bridge-the-gap between the computer and the television. Compaq and Dell tried their integrated systems with large screen monitors for a while. Intel and others have developed cards which allow television access on your PC. And WebTV has done it's thing. But in the end, all these efforts have only garnered a small niche group of buyers. Why?
Do we as consumers really like using 15,17 or 21 inch monitors? Or is it the industry hasn't found the "Strategic inflection point" yet, where multiple technologies have developed to offer a low cost, high value solution for the consumer? I believe the latter.
I also believe, the rudiments of a large scale market for the future of home computing is sitting in my living room. The FS200 chip and device (I bought a few years ago). With it, my television was instantly converted into a computer screen. Now I can sit back in my recliner, with my remote keyboard, and enjoy the entertainment and intellectual value of the internet.
So, why haven't these Focus type devices, sold in the 100-200 dollar range taken the industry by storm? For the same reason AnyPoint type solutions have not worked for a mass market. Most people are techno-fearful. And they demand simple solutions.
Intel now appears to be taking this simpler approach. By integrating the chip into the computer, much of the fear can be removed. If my prediction is correct, in a year or so, anyone will be able to hook up a television to their computer box and enjoy up to 52" of vivid color while surfing the internet.
Access to high speed bandwith on the internet is being solved by a multitude of companies even as we speak, more and more SI participants are reporting the joy of super high speed access. Every day we get closer and closer to most homes in America having this access. Even in my tiny neck of the woods, far from downtown Seattle, fiber cable is being run in nearly every neighborhood. Cable companies are being harassed daily by consumers, and it seems like ADSL/DSL is on nearly every phone companies strategic agenda.
So where are we going? It looks to me like Bill Gates was right in his book "The Road Ahead". Huge flat screen monitors will offer images from around the world. Movies of any type and variety will be offered with a few clicks of the mouse. News will be individually tailored to the needs of the cusumer. And college courses will be offered to millions from the comfort of your home.
Today, we bear witness to a surging of technological innovation. The internet will change nearly everyones paradigm regarding how we work, play, learn, purchase and interact.
Michael |
