Short answer: In August this was the comment
I got from the CFO, probably not an exact
quote but something like this:
ARGENT in the hands of Hoechst would be a waste
(extra banter:)
This was the second time somebody had made that
comment to me, and it was off to the races, just
little 'ol me supporting the stock as it fell,
and fell, and fell some more. (Happily, in this
market, it does not take too many good trades to
pay for that sort of loss, and it was a good lesson.)
I know Hoechst...well, Aventis now, is a huge
pharma...but I have got the impression that
their biotech R&D, at least in the area of
Gene Therapy, is nonexistent. I think it's
perfectly reasonable to perpetuate the Rustang
rumor that Ariad wanted 200M from Amgen and
they were only willing to pay half that and
the stalemate continues.
On the other hand, take Valentis, with a whole
gaggle of programs under their roof...the
geneswitch technology value may not be as high as
I imagine ARGENT to be, but they've got so many
other programs it looks like just a big a bargain
as Ariad.
For all we know the analysts that follow Ariad
have been told to wait for news next spring or
summer, and they're smart enough to keep their
money working elsewhere until then. Take GLGC
for instance, why should BancBoston, or anybody
for that matter, bother with this idea when you
can execute a melt up like that in a stock which
many folks recognize. The folks that pile on now
can think of it as a baby AFFX, brilliant.
I did not even see it coming.
In a nutshell, why screw around here, when their
are other easier pumpable story stocks. |
