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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 88.13+1.1%3:59 PM EST

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To: The Prophet who wrote (35557)12/4/1999 11:15:00 AM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (2) of 93625
 
Re: Playstation 2 royalties alone would justify RMBS' current valuation...

The rambus used in the Playstation 2 is being built in a joint venture plant partly owned by sony. I would expect that they'll get a pretty good deal on the parts made in that plant, say $10 a chip?

2 chips/playstation and a fee for the embedded controller would result in what royalties per unit sales?

$20 x .018 = 36 cents for the DRDRAM, plus another 25 cents for the controller (WAG - insert your number here) totals 61 cents per box.

How many $300 game boxes do you expect them to sell per year? Remember, next year cheap PCs with on board video will be using TNT2 and Savage 2000 engines integrated into the chipset - the game playing capabilites of a $500 computer will be quite compelling, and the computer will do more than just play games (parents, do you want your kids to be able to do homework with that $300 - $500 purchase? or just play games?).

Call it 5 million sales to start (insert your own WAG).
5 million x .61 / 23.55 million = 13 cents per share.

Give it a P/E of 25 and you get a stock price of $3.25

Dan
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