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QUALCOMM :THE ULTIMATE GORILLA. Ruffian your take on Gorilla status is viewed through a tunnel rather then seeing broadly.QUALCOMM is in the enviable position of the ultimate gorilla status.QUALCOMM's technology has clearly demonstrated a disruption in GSM's path.Some companies saw it early ,such as AT&T equipment (now Lucent),Motorola,Samsung and Nokia.Ericsson claimed CDMA would not work in desperation to stop it and finally capitulated.The manufacturing of all CDMA equipment and semicondutor ASICS,filters,software ect, ect is based on QUALCOMM's patents and the standard IS95 and soon CDMA2000 and WCDMA not to mention the "standard elasticity "of the IS95 capability of QUALCOMM's new HDR.QUALCOMM's patent position puts them in a position of a toll booth like royalty stream that no one could enforce without comprehensive IPR patent development that QUALCOMM commands.The other Gorilla factor is the complexity issue of manufacturing CDMA equipment.The evidence is clear that all who try ,struggle and can't seem to get a decent product out the door without QUALCOMM's help ,in addition to QUALCOMM granting the licensing to make CDMA stuff.Ericcson purchased QUALCOMM's infrastructure division to surmount the huge gap, that this huge worldwide telecom company faced ,when they capitulated.QUALCOMM's many generations of chips keep the competition scrambling to keep up as there brain trust keep evolving and stunning the wireless world .QUALCOMM is clearly sitting on top of a HUGE,HUGE wireless industrial CDMA complex that is, each day scaling upward ,to meet the CDMA thirst of the world.This is causing the fastest growing wireless technology in history to confound even the best strategic industry analyst.CDMA allows millions and millions of wireless users to log on to the internet and is creating a whole shift in computing to mobile.These changes are huge in dimension and promise to continue to bigger and bigger capabilities.The Ultimate Gorilla would be the company in control of a vast infrastructure in a new industry by virtue of its patents leading the market and fueling the market to demand its IPR.The earnings from something this global broad base will eventually surpass the capabilities of the largest of Gorillas and they will want to be a part of this extraordinary growth so they become partners in knowledge.The other Gorillas now want to move into the neighborhood to get close to the leader,to complement it and to grow bigger from it.The hypergrowth is there and evident now in the stock price of QUALCOMM.The question is at what level of the tornado are we in?I suspect we are in the lower funnel of a long column all the way up to heaven. |
