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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Joey Smith who wrote (81900)	12/4/1999 11:47:00 AM
From: Bill Jackson	Read Replies (2) of 1573213

Joey. We have a new situation this time around. In the past Intel could selectively cut prices on the older CPUs that were then made by both AMD and Intel. This lost Intel some profits but also denied AMD profits. Intel could afford this easily as they had the high end as well as the xeon lines. Thus Intel was able to make a large profit and AMD was able to make a loss. The major makers(except dell) liked this competition and intentionally gave AMD a share of business to sustain AMD. On CPU price only grounds they should have bought only Intel parts. They reasoned, correctly, that if AMD went broke then the falling prices would come to an end...after all look at Xeon prices. So now the Athlon comes along and to place AMD in that same zero profit point they will have to cut all the coppermines of all speeds. The xeons will stay high, but AMD has a xeon killer in testing as we speak(I surmise this as a logical thing to do on the part of AMD) and so sometime in 2000, Q2/3 there will be an attack on the xeon. Since AMD cannot fill the market demand anyway due to production limits from fewer fabs then Intel will hurt Intel far more than AMD if they cut all prices across the board to kill AMD. AMD will not get killed no matter since the high volume of flash will sustain it since both Fab25 as well as japfab will be making flash. the Flash shortage is predicted to last for 18-24 months. So the maximum profit for Intel is to keep prices as high as possible and let AMD take whatever share they can with their production limited as it is. Now will intel do this? or will they say to hell with profits, try to kill AMD....an unkillable foe, at any cost? What if the cost is 50% less profit for Intel? Intel will still be huge and profitable, but the multiple will suffer and their SP will fall along with the ASP of their CPUs. Their brest bet is to realize they are entering a period of commoditization in CPUs and maximize each market area with selective pricing...like the oil compamies do with gas prices, up and down here and there. Intel does have the opportunity to act irrationally and if they do their share price will take a hit. Bill

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