ERIK,
I agree with your analysis. Increased earnings from the pharm side are built in, and I look forward to further expansion and a bright future based on industry trends.
However, I sense a rapidly deteriorating confidence in the future of XONON (we need the long awaited announcement). My worst fears about the buying behavior of the consumers of this technology appear to be coming true. I can tell you - the generation business is not populated with technological innovators. While the Silicon Valley demonstration is really good, I don't think it is nearly enough. Further, the incentive to achieve <3 ppm Nox, as opposed to 9 ppm really is not there, yet. My reluctant conclusion is that the risk/reward profile for X as perceived by the target audience doesn't cut it -- so far.
As far as GE is concerned, they may be more interested in making sure that no one gets ahead of them than in aggressively pushing the technology right now. My biggest disappointment to date is that Enron, which has the vision, incentive, and means, has apparently done little to make it happen. After all they have a significant equity position and a seat on the board I believe.
I think Xonon will be successful, and at some point the herd instinct will take over, leading to exponential earnings growth. Ultimately, full value will not be assigned by the street until pharm and combustion are split up, as I see it.
BTW, No - I am not a short - Check previous posts. I will be loading up also if we go down from here. I invite anyone so inclined to comment on what I have posted.
Regards
SMH |
