He's fundamentally been a bear for as long as I've seen his site that has the banner, "Replaying 1929". Does that not say it all on where he stands? Sure, Shep changes his short-term tune as often as GZ, but Shep has been wrong in the past. For examples, he made two very disastrous calls in the near-recent time-frame: a) he was strongly calling for 1350-1360 spx, and instead the SPX tanked to 1234. At that point he flipped sides, calling for another 50-60 pt downdraft within 2 days. Instead, 1234 was the bottom, and the rest is history, with SPX rallying 200 pts in less than 1-1/2 months.
So, Shep is just reverting back to natural form, which is bearish. He may be right this time and he may be wrong again. But I noted that although he's claiming to go back to bearish, he says, "With positive seasonality still providing a strong tailwind for this market we would not be entirely amazed if this rally holds up into the new year, but with our indicators flashing loud and clear sell warnings, we do not like the risk/reward of being long at this juncture."
So either way, he's covered. If the market keeps going up, he will say, "we expected it". If the markets go down, he will say "we called it". |
