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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 679.70

+0.7%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (34753)	12/5/1999 10:24:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Thanks for the feedback. I tend to agree from an index stand point but not from a stock stand point. As I said, this weekend I ran through all my charts and once again I was amazed to see the MAJORITY not bullish. Even the ones that are bullish are at major decision points. Index wise I agree with what you say. I show a minimum of DOW 11600 and increasing each day on a ascending trendline as the target. I posted here a week or two ago I expected SPX 1460 at least and that resistance line is also rising. These targets are only from the mid tines of longer term forks and if we do get Favors domed house blowoff type rally, we could go much much higher to the top tines. I think we could have a hard time doing it though since it would take participation by a larger number of stocks than are doing so now. Also don't get me wrong. As I said in my last post, I would not sell right now if I were already in unless my stops were hit. I think CSCO should be around 75 not 95 but I also show that TA wise it could run to the 105-110 area so I wouldn't sell if I were in. Now would I buy it here at 95 knowing the upside is 10 points versus a downside of 20 points, no way. Same with many of the others as I said which are trading at 25-50 times 2003 earnings. I can say with more confidence than they can predict 2003 earnings that we will have some major corrections before 2003. From what levels will these corrections finally come? I don't know yet but I firmly believe they will be bigger and last longer than anything we have had in the last few years. AS for his 3 peaks and a domed house, I have already seen this pattern since you first mentioned it in a individual stocks and I see more and more of them each week. This market is rolling over slowly under the surface with more sectors dieing each month. I found it truely amazing that I picked financials on my site and said the index was due to rally but the individual stocks didn't look like they were ready to rally so I wasn't sure how good a pick it was. Friday the Bank secotrs were up over 3% yet looking at the individual banks, they barely moved. It was just that most stopped falling and went up a 1/4 point or so all together. If you were holding a financial stock your odds of making any money were low. If you held calls on the index, you did. That may be the only way to play long from now on if you are not already in a "hot" stock. Ride the indexes and save individual well picked stocks for the shorts. Personally I am trying to do straddles now. Good Luck, Lee

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