Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (29219)	12/5/1999 12:01:00 PM
From: Roger Mariner	Read Replies (4) of 42771

Novell's a dangerous stock to own when holding out hope for a takeover. In today's super growth mode, Novell with very modest year-over-year growth doesn't inspire much of a premium. Certainly not the typical 40% premium, and nothing like the one paid to Lotus. More likely is a takeunder with a valuation closer to $5 billion (four times annual revenue plus one billion for the cash). As for partners, IBM spits in Novell's general direction. CSCO's Chambers isn't a bottomfeeder. Chairman Young wouldn't let SUNW buy NOVL, and LU has bigger fish to fry--afterall, Bell Labs was the one who sold a number of key technologies to Novell many moons ago. Why would they want them back now? For fun, you might want to see how Novell handled Tuxedo (technology that came from Bell Labs). They sold it off to BEA Systems (BEAS). BEAS ipo'd at 6. Now don't you wish that your NOVL had done as well as BEAS? BEAS knows business and if NOVL had the same game plan, there wouldn't be so many distraught investors lurking on this board. Novell's a fine company run by fine engineers. Why beat them up for what they could become? They are what they are. RM

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