From bulltrade.com:
The big news this weekend was that announcement by AT&T that a deal with
Mindspring will be announced during its Monday morning analyst meeting.
We suggest reading all of the many articles and opinions of others for yourself,
but here's our take. AT&T will let MSPG users have access to their cable,
through ATHM. Therefore, MSPG will benefit because they can offer high-
speed access. T will benefit because they will be compensated by MSPG for
use of the cable. ATHM will benefit largely and has the most to gain from
it. This will define a new role for the non-content side of ATHM. They will be
the "landlord" or "gatekeeper" of the cable network. Whether AT&T does a
deal with MSPG, MSN.com, AOL, or anybody, all of those ISPs will be paying
ATHM an entrance fee. ATHM's subscriber base will likely soar, if you count
the signups from other ISPs as ATHM customers. The only loser we can see
for tomorrow is AOL, which has yet to negotiate a deal. But it is fairly likely
they'll strike a deal as soon as the iron is hot. Now you may be asking, "What
if T doesn't want to work with the middle man and wants to work without
ATHM?" Well, the answer is simple -- they cant'. ATHM has exclusivity rights
to AT&T's cable through June 2002 -- an eternity in Internet time. Also, AT&T
owns a 28% stake in ATHM, so it is unlikely they will shoot themselves in the
leg. ATHM must be a benficiary in this situation. We may see a donw start in
case investors are confused, or AT&T may explain it well enough for ATHM to
gap up 20 points in the morning. There are a lot of questions that can't be
answered, so we'll just wait for the outcome tomorrow. Regardless, AT&T,
ATHM, MSPG/ELNK, and AOL will all be very active Monday. |
