Aus,
"How is it that demand has outstripped supply so quickly and how did we get caught with our pants down???"
Well, this is just a guess, but I think the reason is: mp3.
It certainly caught me by surprise, and I believe it was you who said at some point over the summer (the July CC?) that Dr. H. said that demand for mp3 flash was much stronger than they anticipated. I think, too, that cell phone demand is beginning to take off in a serious way. And probably the earthquake didn't help any, though that appears to have had limited effects on UMCG and TMSC. But the shortages were developing before the earthquake occurred.
As far as whether it is a positive or a negative for them to be building their own capacity: I think it is a positive, especially in a JV with Toshiba. They will learn manufacturing from Toshiba. Dr. H. is not too egoistic to know that they can't possibly do everything themselves, figure out everything themselves, and many companies could learn a thing or two about semiconductor manufacturing from a company like Toshiba. I doubt if they will, even when this facility gets off the ground, ever be fully self sufficient, or even especially close to it, but I would guess that they will to some extent use the Seagate model of using both in-house and outside facilities to keep each of them honest and on their toes.
FWIW, I'm still looking for new highs in January or Febuary, barring a tech market meltdown. |
