Re i2, JDSU, shiny pebbles, and so forth:
There has been extensive discussion of i2, supply chain management, and the entire B2B sector (and the gorilla, king, and godzilla potential of companies within it) over on the "Godzilla" thread:
Subject 30511
I strongly suggest that anyone interested go over and read through the last few hundred posts there to get up to speed on the discussions. For i2, read BB, Teflon, pala; there are also some links to i2-related stuff in posts I made a couple of weeks ago. There is no need to go over basic ground here again, IMO.
Re JDSU's king/gorilla status: personally I agree with Franq, but I'm open to having my mind changed at some point down the road if it becomes clear that there are high switching costs for JDSU's customers and high barriers to entry for its competitors. What is clear already, however--again IMO--is that this discussion has gotten stuck in a bit of a rut, and that for anyone to make a new contribution to it they'll have to know a hell of a lot about both GGing and JDSU.
Re Cha2's comment on "shiny pebbles," I strongly, if respectfully, disagree. Cha2, the term "shiny pebble" does not imply falsity or fakery; it just means that gold and pyrite (or diamonds and SiC, for Creetins!) look alike from a distance, or early in their life-cycles (to mix metaphors shamelessly). Yes, buying companies early that eventually become gorillas or kings is far more profitable than waiting until they are officially anointed as such. But it is also much riskier. The proper question to ask is not whether you got into some of our G&K companies early, but whether at the same time you also got into other promising companies that ultimately crashed and burned.
Only some here (Franq, Lindy, some other purists) are entirely averse to taking any positions in SPs; many of the rest of us do so (in small amounts, at least, according to Apollo's survey). But in doing so we are being greedy and risk-acceptant. By retaining the (admittedly pejorative) SP label for non-G&Ks, we remind ourselves that we are technically violating, rather than respecting, the rules of the game.
tekboy/Ares@toomanyholdingsalready.com |
