Dave: BRESEA vs. MINORCA... you may want to rethink your position. Remember that MAR is sitting on about $1.25/sh in *CASH* which means that, at $1.65/sh, MAR "the company" is trading at only $0.40/sh (ie., MAR's Busang assets have already been written off to zero).
==> If Busang is a bust, BSR is unfortunately going to zero (any/all assets will be wiped out via lawsuits). On the other hand, MAR would drop to a minimum of the underlying cash value (ie., a 25% loss vs. 100% for BSR).
==> If Busang is for real, BSR may go up to say $7.00/sh? (this may still take a while), for a 550% gain. In this situation, MAR might go to say $5.00/sh?, for a 200% gain. The risk/reward is thus:
Risk/Reward
BSR: 100% loss / 550%? gain
MAR: 25% loss / 200%? gain
I recently held both BSR and MAR, but have switched all into MAR (I've already lost enough in this fiasco). I realize that there are still some risks associated with MAR (ie., safety of the $1.25/sh cash, safety of their 7% Busang interest, political risk, etc.), BUT... you can't get any worse than the risk of a 100% loss with BSR/BXM. I looked at somehow hedging my BSR position, but you absolutely can't count on a stop-loss order here, and, the put options are all in-the-money and quite expensive.
I'd appreciate any comments.
-- Paul |
