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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Eric Jacobson who wrote (12170)12/6/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Yes, the original manual did begin with the gorilla game in Supply Chain Management. I've loaned my original out to a friend who I hope 'joins us'. I convinced him to purchase Qualcomm and Gemstar as his first holdings with price entry points of Qualcomm at 173 and Gemstar at 70 - so he thinks I'm a genius. Not to worry - I gave him all your names!

Therefore, I only have the revised manual in my household. Not to worry, I can still sleep at night with the original out on loan. For all practical purposes, i2 seemingly has emerged from the SCM tornado as a leader based on their revenues and growth figures. Remember, this is a niche market and within the enterprise application arena, a gorilla can exist with a market share in the range of 30 - 40%. I have made plenty of posts on the other board that are geared towards i2's 'other products and portal' in the B2B space. I have made posts here concerning i2's market share in the SCM space. I believe I fit it into the category of a double edged sword as an investment. The SCM side and now the B2B side.

Then, this happens today:

RESEARCH ALERT-Manugistics upped to buy,$28 target

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - SoundView Technology Group analyst Steven Kohn said Monday he raised
the rating on Manugistics Group Inc. (NasdaqNM:MANU - news) to buy from hold and set a $28 per share
price target.

-- Shares of Manugistics were up 3-7/16 trading at 22 on the Nasdaq stock market.

-- Kohn said earnings estimates for Manugistics remains unchanged at a loss of $1.35 for fiscal 1999, a loss of 21 cents for fiscal 2000, and a loss of 21 cents for fiscal 2001.

I just don't get it. It was upgraded on December 2 by Banc of America as well. I don't even follow Manugistics any more, but perhaps I should revisit the news and dig around to see what's going on. Could it be that in this market even the dogs are going to run. Uh oh..... Maybe Peoplesoft is shopping again to add to their Red Pepper. Here's the 'not so compelling' reason Banc of America gave for its upgrade of MANU.

siliconinvestor.com

Should we send that analyst a copy of the manual?

The chart is interesting and you can see in 1998 when it appeared that i2 was emerging as the dominant player:

siliconinvestor.com

Regardless, i2 is now a 'double edged sword' prepared to grow revenues and earnings from more than the SCM base product. I don't want to bore any others by going on, but if you search the i2 thread as well as the GG in the eWorld thread, you will find what you are looking for - I hope.

BB
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