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Biotech / Medical : QDEL - Quidel more quick diagnosis
QDEL 24.35+14.3%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Robert Busse who wrote (644)4/18/1997 1:43:00 PM
From: George Young   of 1693
 
Quarter and year end estimates:

Bob and other Quidel avid followers,

I have posted a couple of times to this board and have been an active investor in this stock (QDEL and QDELW). I have several friends who are close to this company (work for resellers, clients, etc..). Based on my own research, I would like to make some estimates for the coming quarter and I would like to hear from others on their estimates as well.

First, I think Quidel will post revenue this quarter around $11.5 million (up 35% over the same quarter last year which was $8.8m). I heard that the Quidel in the US did over $8m this quarter alone so I am comfortable with the $11.5 figure. If we assume this is correct, earnings should come out a little shy of last quarter due to expenses related to the P&G agreement (my guess is around $300k this quarter) so I'll say $.06/share. This means they will end their year with about $.15 to $.16/share in earnings.

If this scenario is true, revenue will be up over 22% year over year and earnings up about 400%. If revenues grow another 25% next year, earnings could be as high as $.29/share. I think the stock could go to $7.00 per share ($.29*low PE of 25) in the next year assuming the lawsuit works out OK.

Anyone care to make their own estimates? Also, assuming my scenario is correct, what do you think will happen around earnings time to the stock price?
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