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Biotech / Medical : Laser Vision Centers, Inc. (NASDAQ: LVCI)

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To: MGV who wrote (343)12/6/1999 5:11:00 PM
From: W Shakespeare  Read Replies (1) of 413
 
If you like roller coaster rides, this should be a very fun week for LVCI stock. Some potential ups, downs, and violent curves.

1.) TLCV's earnings shortfall announcement. Yawn! LVCI drops sharply on the news as is quite clear that most investors cannot distinguish between the companies in the sector. The news has absolutely nothing to do with LVCI or even with the sector. TLCV may be the biggest but it is also the slowest and the least well run. The comparison that comes to mind is Sears and Walmart. Sears was much larger initially but the company focused on large markets where it got murdered by the competition. Walmart, on the other hand, focused on small markets where it could dominate. TLCV's press announcements make it clear that they believe that they can succeed through size. I beg to differ. Success will come from efficiency and strategic advantage.

2.) A decision in the Visx v. Nidek case. Whenever rendered, the case verdict should propel the stocks in the industry one way or the other. I am hoping that VISX wins decisively since it will eliminate any uncertainty hanging over the industry and will prevent the growth of smaller inefficient players.

3.) LVCI's November procedure numbers. I look for a blowout. However, giving the stupidity of the investors in the sector, I doubt whether it will push the stock up much.

4.) Idiot analyst downgrades. It has become obvious that, with a few notable exceptions, most analysts following the industry are clueless and gutless. Some will be saying that no one wants eye surgery anymore and the industry is doomed. Others will comment that the price of procedures will drop to $0.50 an eye! Some will scream that VISX will raise its procedure fee to $500- an eye (if they win) or drop it to $.01 (if they lose). Ignore the idiot analysts and buy more on the drops.
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