Cheryl -
I have not yet sorted through the whole of this thread's recent posts, but several folks have PM'd me saying that my posts on other threads are getting some play here.
I would like to start by giving my credentials as a fan of Sun. I started working with Sun in the mid-80's. I did design work both on OS drivers and disk subsystems. By the late 80's I had established a strong business using Sun workstations as servers in client-server database applications. In partnership with a former very senior Sun executive, I did a large number of systems for Wall Street firms using Sun hardware and Sybase. Many of those systems are still in use today, obviously on different hardware... I admired Sun's architecture and culture then and I still admire it today.
But some of the statements in your post 23786 really strain credibility. Let me make just a few comments -
SUNW's current marketshare of the Web-server market: 72%
Assuming you mean share of commercially used web servers (i.e. those used in some kind of business), most estimates (including IDC) put Sun's share at about 13%. It is silly to say that every server sold by sun is a web server - or worse yet, that every sun box, server or workstation, which can host a web page qualifies as a web server. You will quickly discover that Sun's competitors, measured on the same metrics, vastly outnumber Sun on that scale.
Let's take a few significant facts into account - just looking at servers, CPQ sold more servers last quarter than Sun sold EVER - in its ENTIRE HISTORY. About 70% of those were shipped with everything it takes to host a web page. You only need to go back 6 months to create the mathematical impossibility of Sun having more web-capable servers in the market than CPQ. And that leaves DELL, HP and IBM yet to be counted.
Total estimated Web-server market penetration overall: 5%
Current total size of Internet-generated revenue: $300 billion
Estimated Size of Internet-generated revenue by 2003: $1 trillion
I agree with those statements.
Number of current competitors to SUNW in the web-server market: 2
I would rate CPQ, DELL, IBM and HP as significant competitors in that space, as do the folks who measure that stuff. DELL, IBM and HP are in the high single digits for share, not far from Sun's 13%. CPQ, with more than 30%, has more share than the next 3 combined.
Estimated revenue for SUNW from sale of 10,000 E-10K's: $10 billion
NOW you have me flabbergasted. Do you know how many UE10,000 systems were sold in 1998? Well under 1000... How about 1999? Less than 2000... the total of UE10,000 systems sold EVER? Less than 3000... where does your number come from?
The primary benefit from the UE10,000 was as a "magnet" for 6500 and 4500/5500 systems. Sun has done a great job with both the technology and the marketing of this architecture, but let's keep it in perspective.
I'll probably have a few more comments as I work through the posts on this thread, but I wanted to at least set a rational, facts-based framework for the discussion. |
