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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 34.17

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1:51 PM EST

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To: Jacques Newey who wrote (93398)	12/6/1999 8:19:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (3) of 186894

Jacques - Re: "I've been trying to decide how I can get in on the on the cell phone rage...missed the boat with your early call on QCOM. " My guess is that Intel may be a good bet for year 2001 and beyond. Intel and Qualcomm just renewed their CDMA license (through the DSP acquisition) and Intel's StrongArm and Flash technology both INDEPENDENTLY and Integrated (my assumption for future Cell Phone applications) will give Intel a major foothold in that business. Re: ") What is the gross margin for Intel's current flash business? 3) Working through the numbers stated in the article ( "decrease the cost-per-Mbit of flash memory by about 30% annually","90% of the same manufacturing equipment and 80% of the same “recipe.”,"quadruple its 1999 flash output","2.5 times the number of flash chips currently yielded on an 8-in. wafer) how will this translate into gross margin/profit improvement? 4)Can we assume that Intel will be able to charge a higher price for their superior product? If so, how much more?" Intel's Computing Enhancement Group, which sells chip sets, embedded processors, controllers and flash-memory products, generated $358 million in profit on revenue of $4.05 billion for 1998. My guess is that about $900+ Million was due to Flash - and most of that was sold at a small overall loss - for 1998. As Intel's Flash business (along with every one eles's !) has improved throughout 1999, I would guess that Intel will do over $1.2 Billion in sales - generating a small (< $75 Million) profit. If year 2000 goes smoothly, and Intel's newer technology gets ramped in H2/2000, look for $1.5 Billion in sales and over $125 million in flash profits. Paul

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