The Street, however, has determined that the VISX patents are now worthless.
Yup, that is what "the street" is saying.
The stock will not recover unless
1.) VISX successfully negotiates licensing agreements with BOL and LASE
Likely to happen, see below comments).
or
2.) VISX wins on review of the ITC judge's decision
(Highly unlikely in my view).
or
3.) VISX manages to convince everyone that the legal standing of their patents is still intact.
(Will do with solid license agreements with LASE and BOL, see more below).
I, personally, would not play this price drop as a short-term trading opportunity (for those on the board who have asked). Very few investors and analysts understand the substantial changes that are occurring in the industry and it could be quite a while until all the factors get sorted out. As a long-term investment, however, I think this is a fantastic opportunity.
Sound advice except for the very non-risk averse. For those who can handle the risk (not to be taken lightly), I expect LASE and BOL to come to terms with VISX on license agreements within the next 3-7 weeks. Such license agreements will confirm both that VISX indeed has valuable intellectual property AND the procedure fee will not erdoe significantly any time soon.
Finally, MGV, I wonder if you have any idea on what basis the judge made his decision. Was it based on issues surrounding the patents or on "domestic industry" issues? I hope VISX will enlighten us on the ruling.
The ITC judge ruled that the Trokel patent was invalid and the other patent was not infringed. I understand that both patents were apparatus patents and not method patents. It is widely considered that the method patents (which are before the court in the ND of Cal) are the stronger patents.
P.S. - Does it stike anyone as interesting that VISX was torpedoed by a Japanese company on Dec 7th? My portfolio resembles the American fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941.
LOL - The Banc America analyst titled his note today as follows: "In a day that will live in infamy ....." |
