Hindsight is always 20/20. But I'm never afraid to admit I blew it and move on, I've seen too many investors push or even add to losing positions because they don't want to face the facts. You may or may not be right about MSFT, I sure hope so. I can't afford the risk, so I've trimmed my position a total of 1/3 now from the original 28000 shares, and I'll reassess again in another month or so. The basis in the remaining shares is so low that a different risk calculus is involved, so I'll hold 'em for now. I don't know what percentage of your wealth is in this stock. I'd be less of a chicken little if it was 10% of my portfolio instead of 30%.
Without foreknowledge of the past few months, I wouldn't have bought SUNW. I really don't like the stock enough to pay this kind of multiple given their estimated earnings growth rate. I sure don't like now it at 100 P/E. None of this should be read as any sort of enmity towards the company itself, JMO that the stock's overvalued.
Anyway I spend no time looking backward. If you want to play that game you could imagine yourself trading in and out of every big mover for the past year and multiplying your investment 1000-fold. Except for taxes, the only thing that's ever relevant to a buy/sell decision is the future.
I'm a pretty cautious person and not prone to act too hastily. I did sell some shares when the judge first spoke, and some more at a better price yesterday. I'm making my exit slowly to make sure I don't foolishly sell in a panic, and to give the situation time to come into better focus. I probably won't sell any more shares unless settlement hopes are dashed.
I flipped the proceeds from my first sale into CSCO, which hasn't done badly even versus SUNW. For the second block I've been looking hard at NOK, but it keeps running away from me (started thinking seriously about it in the 130s). :-( I've looked at EMC on and off for months now but after Bill's note I've been digging deeper and so far I like what I see.
I'm not going to rush out and spend the $500K I've raised, I'm going to pick over what's on offer and hopefully get a pullback on some of the stocks I like to give me a better entry.
I have a lot of respect for your courage and of course I hope you're right about the future of MSFT.
Cheers,
Val |
