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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 680.28-0.5%4:00 PM EST
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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (34856)12/7/1999 3:53:00 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
MARKET EARNINGS PREVIEW - Q4 1999 (FIRST CALL)

Since the second week of October, 4Q99 estimates have been revised down at a faster than normal rate. Earnings for the S&P500 had been estimated to show year-over-year earnings growth of 20.5%. That has now been cut to 17.5%. It had been hoped that the greater-than-usual downward revisions might have been a temporary situation associated with the more than usual number of negative comments coming out with 3Q99 earnings reports, but it seems to be continuing well past the peak weeks of the reporting season.

Negative pre-announcements for 4Q99 have already reached 175. With the biggest weeks not to come until early January, it seems likely that the final number may show more than the usual seasonal uptick from the 415 for 3Q99. It is likely, though, that it will be meaningfully below the 554 of 4Q98.

There surely will be some further downward revisions to earnings, even if nothing more than the usual trimming, and the final results will, as usual, beat the final estimates to some degree. However, it now seems that the final results are likely to be no better than 19% with any deviations apt to be on the low side.
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