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Technology Stocks : Global Crossing - GX (formerly GBLX)
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To: mthomas who wrote (3468)12/7/1999 5:11:00 PM
From: cardcounter  Read Replies (2) of 15615
 
if you're really interested , the quick and dirty.

i dont/haven't followed this stock, but my reasons for not being long gblx on a quick glance are as follows:

1. systematic risk, my view that the nasdaq is grossly overvalued and a correction may come about shortly.

2. nonsytematic issues: i'm not a big fan of the frontier purchase based on the pricing pressure that long distance is undergoing. MOre than half of gblx's revenue comes from frontier.. and that is heavily reliant on the ld market. ld is commodity with prices headed lower, and ip telephony will eventually negate the concept of domestic ld. the local component of frontier is even less attractive, etc

the stock is relatively volatile

2002 is a little too far away for me to wait for profitability

i'm slightly concerned about the co's appetite for leverage.

3. industry issues. I think there is too much pipe in the ground/sea relative to demand. although this glut will most likely dissipate, there's too much dark fiber out there currently and more is being laid going forward

And there are many reasons not to go short as well, which you can detail better than i can.

If i had to make a bet, I would go on the long side with a target in the high sixties. but I'll just sit this one out.
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