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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: marc chatman who wrote (56368)12/7/1999 6:39:00 PM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Marc--Still too early to say 'for sure' where we are going--If we break 69, that will invalidate one possible count that had 69 as the start of a larger move up and thereby turn the entire upward sequence from the Oct low into a 3 wave ABC---3 wave sequences are corrective and after they are done, the original direction resumes. The original direction was down to 65 in Oct--so if we take out 69, it would mean the Oct/Nov rally is aborted and the decline from 91 is resuming and we should then take out 65---as part of a C or a Wave 3 (C's are usually limited to about 1.6x the length of A--so anything much more than that is likely a 3)---I would not like to see 69 fall, although my impression is that it will in view of the poor API data and also since we still don't have any daily positive MACD divergence to signal the breaking of the downward momentum as of yet. If 69 falls, 65 will likley fall and if 65 falls the next potential Stop and Reverse area is near 53--That seems like a long way down, but until one sees a DAILY macd divergence (use 5/17), it is not safe to bottom feed. To my way of thinking, 69 is a crucial test and if we print below it, I for one will not be buying dips near there. My best guess is that it is going to fall. No new buying for me until at least a divergence in macd shows its hand (lower price but macd refuses to confirm).
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