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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: bill meehan who wrote (78257)12/7/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: John Pitera   of 86076
 
today one
of every ten stocks on the New York Stock Exchange hit their lowest price
of the past 52 weeks and the daily advance-decline line reached its lowest
level since June of 1995. At the same time the Nasdaq Composite was up
again and closed at yet another 52 week high. That, of course, says nothing
about what happened with Yahoo today. In a bulletin sent out today by Ned
Davis research, Tim Hayes pointed out the following: One of their breadth
indicators is calculated by taking 52 week highs minus 52 week lows on a
weekly basis, then dividing by issues traded for the week (the number of
issues traded for the week on the New York Stock Exchange). Last week that
indicator closed at -16.7%, its third lowest reading of the year. They then
compared the bad breadth with advisory sentiment as calculated by
Investor's Intelligence on a bulls divided by bulls plus bears. That, at
the end of last week was at 64.9%. there have been only two other time
periods when advisory sentiment was above 64% at the same time that breadth
was lower than -16% on their two indicators. That occurred on October 16,
1987 and August 7, 1998. They wrapped up those comparisons by saying, and
we quote, "not good times to buy to say the least." It sounds very bearish
and it could well turn out to be just that, but of course
such comparisons and analogies in the past have been to no avail. To say that this
market has no prior analogies to make is putting it mildly.

The drg.x index is really in free fall. the djua and uty.x are also problematic.

John
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