Paul, I was contemplating buying Minorca but then said what the hell,
why not just buy the real thing (BSR or BXM). BXO also has
considerable amount of leverage, if you think about it, with a small
downside.
Here is a quick analysis (not accurate)....
Current 71million 30 million no gold
Bre-X $2.30 $15 $4 $0
Bresea $1.10 $7.50 $2 $0.50
Minorca $1.60 $6 $3 $1.20
Bro-X $0.35 $1.50 $0.6 $0.30
71million 30million no gold
Bre-X 6.5x 1.7x -100%
Bresea 6.8x 1.8x -55%
Minorca 3.8x 1.9x -25%
Bro-X 4.3x 1.7x -15%
We can argue over this for days i.e if there is only 30million then class action suits will take out the remaining Bresea and Bre-X
value etc etc. But in my opinion, if there is gold, and I think there
is, Bresea is the best buy, highest upside leverage.
Please note that the above was done in 10 minutes, if someone could
do a more detailed calculation, including prices for each scenario
i.e Guzman is alive, Freeport screwed up, lawsuits come in etc,
and post them on this thread, will be much appreciated.
Just my opinion..... Minorca is probably the safest, but to make
as much if there is gold, I would have to buy twice as much, but
at this stage, everything is a gamble anyways. I would sell BSR
buy MAR if MAR dropped a little and BSR went up, but right now,
I think BSR is the best. |
